Russia Crashing?

[Ozarks Tom]

Here's an article with the plain facts about Russia's economy.  It appears they're nearing dire straits, but Putin persists in military adventurism.  I'm beginning to wonder if the guy is delusional, the numbers tell a factual story, but he's got dreams of being a global power. 

Polls suggest that Mr Putin remains popular but the full force of the crisis has only started to hit home, and he can no longer keep putting off the choice between guns and butter. Real incomes have dropped by 9.8pc over the last year. Food prices have jumped 17pc.

Ivan Starikov, the former deputy economy minister, said the true inflation rate is near 30pc. “We are rapidly approaching the fateful mark where of 50pc of the average Russian family's income will be spent on food. We have again behttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11937348/Russia-retreats-to-autarky-as-poverty-looms.htmlcome a country of poor people,” he said. 

It appears the shale oil production in this country has put a crimp in quite a few economies, but with Russia relying on energy exports for such a large portion of its GDP, they're hurting worse than most.

[sawmilljim]

I call this more propaganda to distract from the escalating fiasco created by our Fed. Russia is creating trade deals all over the world while the US is creating war . Russia still holds 89 billion in US bonds it no longer needs .Those bonds may not be accurately reported though. Another thing our powers that be are in a huff about is the fact the things not included in the embargo on Russia Putin just stopped all buying anyway .

One chicken processor near here at one time was selling lots of tons of chicken to Russia those losses has got to hurt someone .

[Wanderer0101]

Russia is a pretty strange place. I've spent some time there and my impression is that the people will put up with enormous hardships and that they tend to be pretty subservient to whatever government is in power for what would seem like a very long time to us in the West before they do something about it. I'm also not sure they every really left the Soviet Union in their own minds.

[paisley]

I see what Jim is saying....to me it's a push and a nudge from the media to put Russia as more vulnerable..

[Deleted]

I can see the "push and nudge" Jim and Paisley are talking about, but OTOH, Russia does seem to be stretching herself thin.

That said, we're certainly not in the catbird seat.

Nothing to do but be ready for whatever happens when it all comes down.

Huh. I was just put in mind of Steinbeck's Ma Joad, and her "We're the people" speech...

“Why, Tom - us people will go on livin' when all them people is gone. Why, Tom, we're the people that live. They ain't gonna wipe us out. Why, we're the people - we go on.'

'We take a beatin' all the time.'

'I know.' Ma chuckled. 'Maybe that makes us tough. Rich fellas come up an' they die, an' their kids ain't no good, an' they die out. But, Tom, we keep a-comin'. Don' you fret none, Tom. A different time's comin'.”

Problem is, the way I see, the kind of people who "go on" are fewer in number than ever before. There are a lot more people who take, fewer who give and keep on keepin' on...

[Deleted]

You're the OP, Ozarks Tom. What's your take on this? Do you think the numbers are accurate (at least more accurate than the numbers China releases <G>), and do you think it means Russia's going down?

[Ozarks Tom]

Oct 26, 2015 0:42:02 GMT @pony said:

You're the OP, Ozarks Tom. What's your take on this? Do you think the numbers are accurate (at least more accurate than the numbers China releases <G>), and do you think it means Russia's going down?

I think Russia is still very dangerous to us, and possibly getting more so as their economy worsens.  Although the Russian people haven't known true freedom in their history, and they're known for accepting suffering as a way of life, if their economy continues to decline due to both low oil prices and military expansions/adventurism, Putin's popularity could plummet to the point he finds it necessary to re-focus the public's attention elsewhere.  We can't forget he's ex-KGB, with the ingrained hatred for all things Western that goes with it, and finding as his opponent the weakest President in 35 years.

As to Russia's and China's numbers, I would guess they're similar to ours.  The best bad news the governments can come up with.  One metric you can trust is the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks international shipping.  This time a year ago it was 1484 (5 yrs ago 2678), and at last report this month it's 774.  To me, that pretty well coincides with the latest numbers for China from outside sources, but well below China's published data.

Is Russia going down?  With Putin in charge, probably not without a (literal) fight. 

For several years now there have been reports of China stockpiling huge amounts of Gold for the purpose of introducing a gold backed currency to replace the dollar.  If their economy continues on its current trajectory, they may need it to forestall a revolution.  Over the past 20  years they've nearly become a consumer society, for the first time in their history developing a middle class.  The Chinese people aren't going to like returning to the farms and rice paddies.  Like the old song "How You Gonna Keep Em Down On The Farm, After They've Seen Paree".

There's almost some perverse pleasure in watching the world's smartest people outsmart themselves.

[Deleted]

Yeah, Ozarks Tom,I've seen a lot about Russia, China, and Egypt manipulating currency to set up the dollar for a death blow.

I think about Mao's takeover, how people went from reasonably good lives to poverty and sickness almost overnight. Color was removed from everything, including clothing. The world went back to black and white, everything was The Same, and dissenters met their end if they didn't do well in re-education slave camps.

Hopefully, the Chinese will fight a return to paddies and grey pajamas.

Obama will pretty much hand us over to whoever threatens to punch his lights out.

Meh. We'll keep going on, and we'll deal with whatever happens. Please God that He returns SOON.