Famed financial analyst predictions on the US economy

[farmgirl]

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13019067/Richard-x-bove-dollar-collapse-china-money-superpower.html

Famed financial analyst Richard X. Bove predicts the fall of the US economy and says China will take over as the money superpower in his final forecast ahead of his retirement: 'The dollar is finished as the world's reserve currency'
The recently-retired banking oracle - who forecast the 2008 housing crisis - made the dramatic prediction this week
Bove, 83, claimed other analysts won't make the same admission because they're 'monks praying to money' who rely on the mainstream financial system
It comes despite the collapse of its property sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the country's economy, and US growth

[Ozarks Tom]

I disagree heartily. The real estate market in the US might be in bad times, but the Chinese real estate market with the bankruptcy of Evergrande today is much worse. He says our real estate market accounts for 25% of our economy, which is false. But, the real estate market in China does indeed account for at least 25% of their economy, and it's crumbling. Where our real estate market is spread among thousands of banks, theirs is concentrated in a very small venue as opposed to ours.

China is a hair's breadth from devaluing the yuan, that's how strong their currency is.

China has been losing manufacturing and exports for a long time, and international investment since their new laws last year is evaporating.

The idea that China's currency would become the world currency is far fetched. Even with their partners in the BRIC+ the combined economic strength is a bad second best.

Not that our dollar is in that wonderful shape, with our crazy debt and loss of exports pulling it down, but still stronger than China's.

[fordy]

...............Italy , just removed their participation in "The Bridge\Road" program as other countries have !  , fordy

[FeralFerret]

As much as I hate to say it, I think both the US and China economies are screwed.

[farmgirl]

[farmgirl]

[farmgirl]

dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2024/02/01/one-missing-line-from-the-feds-big-statement-could-spell-trouble-for-the-economy/

The Federal Reserve excluded one key line from its Wednesday interest rate decision announcement, indicating possible trouble in the ailing banking sector that could spread to the wider economy.

The Federal Open Market Committee released a statement at the conclusion of its January meeting regarding the health of the economy, as well as a decision to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 5.25% and 5.50%. The statement excluded a phrase that had been present in previous months that reads, “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient,” indicating that a troubled American banking sector could weigh on the future economy.

[FeralFerret]

The statement excluded a phrase that had been present in previous months that reads, “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient,” indicating that a troubled American banking sector could weigh on the future economy.

Anyone with half a brain already knows that the "sound and resilient" is a lie.

[farmgirl]

insiderpaper.com/us-public-debt-is-unsustainable-fed-chief/

The United States is on an “unsustainable” path with regard to its national debt and it is time to address the issue, Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said in an interview aired Sunday.

The US national debt currently stands at more than $34 trillion, according to the US Treasury.

“In the long run, the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The US federal government’s on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy,” Powell told CBS’ “60 Minutes” news program.

“It’s probably time, or past time, to get back to an adult conversation among elected officials about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path,” he said in the interview, which was recorded on Thursday.

“I do think it’s pretty widely understood that it’s time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability. And sooner’s better than later.”

Last week, the Fed voted to leave interest rates unchanged for the fourth straight meeting, and while it said at the time that “risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance,” it also hinted that rate cuts were not imminent.

In the CBS interview, Powell reiterated that stance, saying it was unlikely that a rate cut would come at the next meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in March.

“I think it’s not likely that this committee will reach that level of confidence in time for the March meeting, which is in seven weeks,” Powell said.

When asked about what conditions needed to be in place for an eventual cut, Powell replied: “It doesn’t need to be better than what we’ve seen, or even as good. It just needs to be good.”

He added: “The best we can do is to weigh the risk of moving too soon against the risk of moving too late and make that judgment in real time. So that time is coming, I would say, based on what we expect.”

The Fed’s benchmark interest rate is currently steady at its 23-year high, between 5.25 and 5.50 percent.

Powell said he believed inflation would continue to taper off in the first half of 2024, and the Fed would reassess its interest rate target in March.

“Nothing has happened in the meantime that would lead me to think that people would dramatically change their forecasts,” he told CBS

[Ozarks Tom]

Powell didn't even mention spending. The Fed can only react to what the government does. As far as I can tell the Fed hasn't tried in the least to influence the government's penchant for buying votes. Until such time as they show fiscal restraint, we'll continue to circle the bowl, until we don't.

[sunny225]

Of course it is unsustainable. Has been for awhile now. They don't care. Part of the plan...

[farmgirl]

www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/business/banks-real-estate-fears.html

Why One Shaky Bank Is Stirring Fears of a Wider Financial Mess
New York Community Bancorp’s plunging stock price highlights risks that loom over lenders large and small.

[Ozarks Tom]

Doggone, it's the NYT that wants a person to pay to see the article.

I can only assume the bank in question has exposure to commercial real estate that's very precarious right now with the chaos on the urban environment. Lots of very big banks own loans in very big city business districts that are starting to go empty.

[sunny225]

Here's a couple about this bank that you don't have to pay for.

www.reuters.com/legal/new-york-community-bancorp-is-sued-over-disclosures-stock-price-2024-02-06/

apnews.com/article/new-york-community-bancorp-signature-bank-deposits-credit-adda7b9d0538ac8e1e29fc5cddadf9a9