We Saw This Coming

[Ozarks Tom]

We already knew about the crazy increase in fertilizer prices, and the likelyhood of them doubling again and affecting grain prices across the board, but there's a new wrinkle to consider:

The critical food supply-chain issue of the day is whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will significantly and persistently raise prices at the grocery store for U.S. consumers and around the world. While no one really knows the answer, here’s why you should be concerned.

Over the past two decades, Russia and Ukraine have become major players in world grains markets, especially for wheat W00, +7.03%. In the past two years, both were the source of about 14% of world wheat production. Ukraine supplied 4% (on average about 27 million metric tons (mmt) annually), and Russia 10% (averaging about 78 mmt yearly). The two countries have even larger shares of global wheat exports, with Ukraine supplying close to 10 % and Russia about 18% from 2019 to 2021.

The two countries are also important corn C00, -1.43% producers and exporters, though less dominant in world markets. They also produce and export other agricultural products.

It’s thus not surprising that spot and futures markets for wheat, corn and soybeans had surged by close of business on Feb. 24, the day of the invasion. The Kansas City September (harvest time) futures price for hard red winter wheat increased in one day by about $0.40, reaching near $9.65 a bushel. 

www.marketwatch.com/story/as-wheat-prices-keep-surging-over-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-heres-how-to-think-about-u-s-food-costs-11646230623?reflink=mw_share_email

14% of grains taken out of the market is big.  Combine that with decreased production due to fertilizer, and we can expect major price increases in nearly everything at the market.

If you have a grinder, you might want to stock up on wheat & corn.

[wildhorseluvr]

You’re putting me in panic mode! 😬 Had a lot of wheat, got rid of a good portion of it when downsizing. Was still planning on moving to AZ at the time and had no clue we were soon to be on the verge of WWIII. 

This brings up another point…fertilizer. I am NOT a gardener, I have a black thumb. 🥀 😢 However, I am determined to learn. We’re likely to end up with a house on 1/4 to 1/2 acre, not much but I won’t be getting much help and won’t be able to handle much more. I’m planning on using raised beds, growing UP where possible and considering getting a greenhouse. 
I’d like to find and purchase some fertilizer now, as there may not be any available after we move. What type(s) should I be looking for and in what quantities? Same with insecticides and other supplies. I have no idea where to start. Never used commercial fertilizer, with our zoo that was one thing we had no shortage of.

*Sorry, maybe should have started a new thread for this.

[paisley2]

Any small fish waste from fishing sites near you?

[sawmilljim]

Mar 7, 2022 16:13:15 GMT wildhorseluvr said:

You’re putting me in panic mode! 😬 Had a lot of wheat, got rid of a good portion of it when downsizing. Was still planning on moving to AZ at the time and had no clue we were soon to be on the verge of WWIII. 

This brings up another point…fertilizer. I am NOT a gardener, I have a black thumb. 🥀 😢 However, I am determined to learn. We’re likely to end up with a house on 1/4 to 1/2 acre, not much but I won’t be getting much help and won’t be able to handle much more. I’m planning on using raised beds, growing UP where possible and considering getting a greenhouse. 
I’d like to find and purchase some fertilizer now, as there may not be any available after we move. What type(s) should I be looking for and in what quantities? Same with insecticides and other supplies. I have no idea where to start. Never used commercial fertilizer, with our zoo that was one thing we had no shortage of.

*Sorry, maybe should have started a new thread for this.

I guess I’m in a good area the farmers around here spill enough grain to last a person a while. Thing is no one at this point wants to pick it up. As to fertilizer I live in the chicken capital of the country. As for other grain there are grain bins within a few miles that have a million bushels per bin.

I guess my Uncle was right when he said one half the country has no idea how the other half lives.

[farmrbrown]

Mar 7, 2022 16:31:52 GMT sawmilljim said:

Mar 7, 2022 16:13:15 GMT wildhorseluvr said:

You’re putting me in panic mode! 😬 Had a lot of wheat, got rid of a good portion of it when downsizing. Was still planning on moving to AZ at the time and had no clue we were soon to be on the verge of WWIII. 

This brings up another point…fertilizer. I am NOT a gardener, I have a black thumb. 🥀 😢 However, I am determined to learn. We’re likely to end up with a house on 1/4 to 1/2 acre, not much but I won’t be getting much help and won’t be able to handle much more. I’m planning on using raised beds, growing UP where possible and considering getting a greenhouse. 
I’d like to find and purchase some fertilizer now, as there may not be any available after we move. What type(s) should I be looking for and in what quantities? Same with insecticides and other supplies. I have no idea where to start. Never used commercial fertilizer, with our zoo that was one thing we had no shortage of.

*Sorry, maybe should have started a new thread for this.

I guess I’m in a good area the farmers around here spill enough grain to last a person a while. Thing is no one at this point wants to pick it up. As to fertilizer I live in the chicken capital of the country. As for other grain there are grain bins within a few miles that have a million bushels per bin.

I guess my Uncle was right when he said one half the country has no idea how the other half lives.

That's why I always listened to the wisdom of elders. The two halves are apparent in this thread and you can see it right down to the individual person.
The top half eats the grain (mouth) and the bottom half.........provides the fertilizer.
Pay attention to what's going on and y'all will be just fine.

[BrewDaddy]

Bread can be made with other grains besides wheat.  bd

[wildhorseluvr]

paisley2, I have no idea (this will be a new area to me). Right now I’m just thinking of commercial packaged fertilizer, to get me by for a summer or two. Hopefully by then I could locate a fertilizer source over there…maybe a neighbor who keeps livestock or something. 

[paisley2]

Check out Craigs list in the farm section for folks near by offering eggs ( that's prepping for 2023 and later)horse or goats for sale ...then check and see if they have for this year...I get that you might not be up to the work but got the a church and offer to supply say a youth group a dinner ( homemade pizza ect if the youth could help you out with the muscle. Also check out the waste or recycle places for cardboard and newspapers.. If you are near shores go to the beach but skip the tanning and seek out seaweed. Even grocery stores have cardboard and if you ask you can gather alot and quick too. Honey I am cheap...check I hit up local brewery and got so much spent grain I had to compost what the animal could not eat. Asking is not shamful...I learned the local brewery's were great full to get rid of it and liked that I found a use for it...I cost me 4 garbage cans ( big ones) they filled 2 a week and I picked 2 up and left 2.. Had my name and number on them...and spent grain written too!

[paisley2]

Cardboard saved on weeding and watering
Cardboard a layer spent grain layer of weeds an veggie waste and chicken blessings start over again.

[Jolly]

Mar 7, 2022 17:26:19 GMT wildhorseluvr said:

paisley2 , I have no idea (this will be a new area to me). Right now I’m just thinking of commercial packaged fertilizer, to get me by for a summer or two. Hopefully by then I could locate a fertilizer source over there…maybe a neighbor who keeps livestock or something. 

Triple 13, Miracle-Gro ( or generic), Liquid Sevin.

You start those raised beds with decent soil, mulch to keep the weeds down, locate some local fertilizer source (rabbit can be used immediately) and compost as soon as possible. You can grow a ton of stuff in raised beds, without taking up a ton of space.

[solargeek]

Mar 7, 2022 20:00:37 GMT Jolly said:

Mar 7, 2022 17:26:19 GMT wildhorseluvr said:

paisley2 , I have no idea (this will be a new area to me). Right now I’m just thinking of commercial packaged fertilizer, to get me by for a summer or two. Hopefully by then I could locate a fertilizer source over there…maybe a neighbor who keeps livestock or something. 

Triple 13, Miracle-Gro ( or generic), Liquid Sevin.

You start those raised beds with decent soil, mulch to keep the weeds down, locate some local fertilizer source (rabbit can be used immediately) and compost as soon as possible. You can grow a ton of stuff in raised beds, without taking up a ton of space.

And you put thick flakes of straw tightly over the beds in fall (with or without cleaning out the weeds as this kills the ones in fall and the next spring. No need to do anything but make a space in the straw come spring to plant your new seedlings. That is my life!

[wildhorseluvr]

Mar 7, 2022 17:25:51 GMT BrewDaddy said:

Bread can be made with other grains besides wheat.  bd

But wheat bread tastes better. 🙂