Post by Ozarks Tom on Nov 2, 2015 14:54:41 GMT
On one site this morning I read that China announced it will miss their projected growth of 6.9% slightly, while on other sites we read China has nearly come to a complete halt in growth, and might be headed for stagnation. There are a few indicators that cut through all the propaganda, the Baltic Dry Index - that follows real shipments of goods, and PMI - Purchasing Managers Index - that follows orders for new capital equipment expenditures, and other growth indicators. Many economies are dependent on China's commodity orders for steel, aluminum, copper, and especially oil. Here's a look at their situation on oil.
Disappointed "this time it's different" analysts point out better-than-expected China PMI, a relatively large decline Friday for U.S. rig count, and overall sentiment today as reasons why crude oil prices should not be falling, but after hitting 2 week highs Friday, with algos running stops on every swing, it appears the harsher reality of China's full storage, plunging tanker rates, an unquivering OPEC, and ongoing production levels is too much to bear for the bulls... www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/wti-crude-gives-fridays-surge-gains-back-45-handle-amid-china-storage-tanker-fears
It doesn't jibe that they'd be reporting better PMI, while they're out of storage space for oil (2 tankers unable to unload for months). It seems to me, throwing out all the official information from China, and looking to the things they can't fudge will give us a more realistic picture of their economy. In other words, not good.
Disappointed "this time it's different" analysts point out better-than-expected China PMI, a relatively large decline Friday for U.S. rig count, and overall sentiment today as reasons why crude oil prices should not be falling, but after hitting 2 week highs Friday, with algos running stops on every swing, it appears the harsher reality of China's full storage, plunging tanker rates, an unquivering OPEC, and ongoing production levels is too much to bear for the bulls... www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/wti-crude-gives-fridays-surge-gains-back-45-handle-amid-china-storage-tanker-fears
It doesn't jibe that they'd be reporting better PMI, while they're out of storage space for oil (2 tankers unable to unload for months). It seems to me, throwing out all the official information from China, and looking to the things they can't fudge will give us a more realistic picture of their economy. In other words, not good.