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Post by Ozarks Tom on Jan 26, 2017 16:59:11 GMT
I thought I'd try one more, not that I'm getting any better, but like giving a cheap gift - it's the thought that counts.
My original effort, Getting By, was based on the second most likely doomer scenario, which may or may not happen. This story is about an economic crash, the most likely scenario.
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Post by Ozarks Tom on Jan 26, 2017 17:00:45 GMT
The Crash
Bank holiday? Did they say bank holiday? The coffee grinder was going, but it sure sounded like it. I finished putting the ground coffee and water in the coffee maker and turned up the volume on FOX news. Steve Doocy had just been handed a paper, but seemed confused by the update. With one of those “deer in the headlights” expressions he commenced to explain Deutsche Bank had folded, defaulting on trillions in derivatives. They didn’t officially announce it, just refused payments to others in the chains. It happened 12 hours previous, and in that time Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citi had all called the Treasury Secretary to tell him they were insolvent.
Derivatives being what they are, unregulated bets on profits and losses, with several parties taking a part of the risk, in theory they balance out to zero. The problem being the danger of one major party finding themselves upside down in bad loans, and unable to pay their portion of a bad bet. The same derivative might have signatories spread from London to Singapore, with Deutsche Bank in the middle. When Deutsche Bank doesn’t pay, the chain is broken. Another way of explaining derivatives would be to imagine a horse race track where instead of betting windows where people pay their money up front, they have slips of paper where bettors write their bets down, but promise to pay after the race. When the race is over, some of the bettors slip out the side exit.
Well, in any case, the handle has been pushed, and the banks are heading for the septic tank.
Doocy goes on to explain the banking system is frozen in place, with an announcement scheduled for 10 am by the Treasury, to be followed with a speech by the President. In the meantime, all banking transactions, including ATM withdrawals, are halted.
The Speeches
First the Treasury Secretary talks for 10 minutes, giving a very vague description of what’s happened. He assures the audience it’s just a temporary glitch, but for the time being there will be some controls put in place to avoid overburdening the banks during this time of crisis. First, the banks will re-open two days hence. Withdrawals will be limited to $200 per account per week, ATM machines will operate today, but with the same limit. Social security, SNAP, EBT, SSID checks will still be deposited by the government as scheduled, but will be under the same restrictions as standard bank accounts. The Federal Reserve Bank has agreed to step in with Quantitative Easing, while being careful not to spark hyperinflation.
You can tell by his demeanor and tone he doesn’t believe a word he’s saying.
Next, the President steps to the podium with both a solemn and somewhat confused look on his face. Looking at his papers like they were written in Chinese, uncomfortable doesn’t begin to describe his appearance. It’s obvious he’s been briefed, but has no clue as to how much of what he’s been told he can trust, even if he understood the briefings. Right then, faking it was the best option.
He begins with assuring the nation he’s already been in touch with several heads of State around the world, and they’ve all agreed to work together to overcome this problem, which could best be described as an accounting situation of massive but controllable nature. He goes on to say he’s enlisted the brightest and best minds in economics, along with the World Bank and IMF to resolve the problem. He feels certain within a short period of time everything will be back to normal. He knows the Treasury’s temporary restrictions will be burdensome for everyone, but be patient and it will all be worked out. As he walked from the podium I could see aides talking to him animatedly.
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Post by Ozarks Tom on Jan 26, 2017 17:01:50 GMT
The Reaction
On paper the stock market is unaffected. Since all bank accounts are frozen, there is no buying or selling. However, the “sell” orders are stacking up at brokerage firms like telephone books. It’s projected there will be a 70% drop in the Dow. Since there are “emergency stops” built into the system, it might take several days to drop that much, but there aren’t any signs of buyers in the offing.
All over the country people are lining up at ATM machines. Only drive-up machines are available, the bank doors are closed. People are parking elsewhere and standing in lines. There have been reports of fights and even shootings caused by people trying to cut in line. Not all the machines have been reprogrammed for the new maximum withdrawal amount, causing people further back in line to attack those taking out the old maximums, possibly leaving the machines empty before they can get to them.
Supermarkets are a hodgepodge of different turmoils. Cashiers will take cash, but not checks. Debit cards are being denied in most cases, and credit cards aren’t considered at all. People are filling their carts to overflowing, pushing them straight out the doors. Those stores who turned out the lights and tried to close the doors are being looted to bare walls. This isn’t just inner city, but everywhere.
Gas station tanks will soon be empty. Some tried rationing, failing almost immediately. Some tried closing, but were broken into and the pumps turned back on. Most just watched as people filled up and drove off, after helping themselves to whatever snacks were still available.
The day isn’t over and the country is in chaos. The police can’t be everywhere, so they’re nowhere. They have families to feed too, so nobody is surprised at reports of police cars jammed to the roof with food. What little effort there is to maintain order is ignored, everyone wants theirs, to hell with the hindmost.
The TV news broadcasts couldn’t be more disparate. The broadcast networks are downplaying the violence and looting, while couching their opinion segments in accusatory political spin, i.e. the Republican administration should have seen this coming. FOX is presenting it as an international crisis, explaining that in a sense we’re victims of foreign banks, and nobody could have seen this coming. They feature on the scene reporters at supermarkets and ATM machines, one gets robbed during a live broadcast.
I’m thinking “my wife and I saw it coming years ago, didn’t you take math in school?”
A Week Later
Martial Law has been declared in all major cities, in some areas extending to the suburbs. At first the National Guard was called out, but not many showed up. The President, acting on previous legislation, deployed regular Army troops in their stead. Orders have been given to shoot looters on sight, but most looting is over now.
Congress has passed emergency legislation converting all 401k and IRA accounts into the general fund, with assurances that all monies taken will be doled back to their owners as incremental payments at retirement, similar to Social Security. People are to bring in their last statements to establish their new retirement accounts.
The government has “converted” $18.2 trillion dollars in people’s savings, but considering banking derivatives worldwide amount to over a quadrillion, the money will stay with the government, not to bail out the now destroyed banking system.
Unemployment has officially reached 30%, unofficially about 60%. Businesses are allowed to direct deposit paychecks into employee accounts, but individual withdrawal limits are still in place. Just making those deposits is many times difficult, if not impossible, as many IT personnel aren’t on the job to fix disruptions of service.
Trucking and rail shipments have ceased. Since all major freeways are either routed through cities or just outside them in loops, with trucks being stopped and emptied within days of the crash. Truckers are afraid to drive, and trucking companies won’t risk their equipment.
Without trucking, robberies, home invasions, and general mayhem in search of food has started. The cities are the worst, but the suburbs aren’t much better. The “normalcy bias” that has afflicted the population in general has come back to bite them with a vengeance. The new normal is hunger.
FEMA has promised an immediate response, but only DC and New York have seen them so far. The government has commandeered all food distribution warehouses, but apparently can’t decide what to do with them. Only the Army, under heavily armed escort, can move on the highways and there aren’t enough Army truck drivers. Huge amounts of produce will spoil before long, and without refrigerated trucks meat can’t be shipped.
The Federal Reserve has digitally enhanced the government’s general fund with $20 trillion dollars, making everyone’s currency worth little. The official projection is a 20% inflation rate over the next year, but everyone knows they pulled that number out of thin air, or elsewhere.
Television broadcasts are still on, but with skeleton staffing. The only reports now are from government mouthpieces asking forbearance and promising relief “soon”. For some reason radio stations are more informative, reporting mass rioting worldwide, intolerable conditions in the cities, and summary executions of lawbreakers by the Army. Talk shows like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck are off the air, no explanation as to why. The internet is still up, but any sites considered “seditious”, in other words that tell the truth, have been shut down.
Family and friends have been arriving since last week. The minute we heard “bank holiday” my wife was on the phone telling everyone to pack essentials and get here ASAP. One son was here the next day from Dallas, with his (worthless) teenage son. Two days later the other son, wife, and young son were here from Miami. They’d had some problems, especially in Memphis, but made it through. The daughter in Seattle isn’t coming, like most of Seattle she thinks the government will provide. Two more couples from Dallas, and one from Oklahoma City are here, along with my wife’s idiot brother from Tulsa. Adding to our group several local people we trust, we’re preparing to handle what we know is coming.
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Post by Ozarks Tom on Jan 26, 2017 17:07:14 GMT
A Month Later
Several surprises, for one, the power is still on. We figured power plant employees would go AWOL by now, but apparently not. We’ve had to turn away lots of folks, but not had any real fire fights, just a couple of what I’d call skirmishes where we had to make it clear we meant what we said. The government has shown a modicum of ability in getting food to the cities, how long that will last nobody can guess, but at least for now we’re not plagued with urban beggars and thieves, for now. Local governments seem to for the most part stifled the urge to turn communist, mandating everyone starve equally in the name of the greater good.
Later in the week
Did I mention my brother-in-law is an idiot? I’d use the term gullible to describe him, but it doesn’t go far enough. For instance, he showed up here with two suitcases full of Iraqi dinars (pre-2003) that are going to make him rich beyond imagination.
Having him stand road guard was an enormous mistake on my part. All he had to do was use the handheld radio to alert us we had company, but no, true to saying “stupid people don’t know they’re stupid”, he decided he could handle things himself.
From what we’ve gleaned, the conversation went something like this:
First deputy: Hi, we didn’t know anyone was on this road. BIL: Oh, yeah, there’s about 14 of us down at Tom’s place Second deputy: Wow, that’s a lot of people, how are you doing for food? BIL: We’re good, thanks. Between what Tom and my sister had stored, and what the others brought we’ve got enough to last at least a year, what with the livestock and gardens. First deputy: That’s great, glad to hear y’all are doing so well, I guess we’ll be going then. BIL: Have nice day.
It’s a shame he’s not smart enough to know what he’s done, and feel suicidal, but I really don’t have anyone to blame but myself.
That night
Decision time. Now that the County government knows we’ve got food stored, and how many there are of us, it’s only a matter of time before they’re back with overwhelming numbers to “appropriate” our food.
What to do? Set up an ambush? Try to hide it? Admit defeat and just give it up?
An ambush is voted against immediately. There’s still law enforcement, sort of, on the job. Overcoming the initial bunch would just mean more would be back later.
Hiding our food would be useless after BIL told them the extent of our supplies.
Admitting defeat means starvation for all of us, there’s got to be another way. How about a bluff with a compromise? Since we have nothing to lose, we decide to try it.
A day later
We moved our alarm transmitters out to the turn off from the main road, and parked a backhoe across the gravel road where there’s no way around it. Everyone was on alert status, weapons were close at hand at all times, and the trailer hooked to the Bronco to move people into position.
About noon the alarms sounded. Everyone grabbed their gear and loaded into the trailer, we were in position just as the convoy rounded the turn. Our people were concealed on both sides of the road, while Warren (son from Dallas) and I were seated in camp chairs in front of the backhoe.
The lead vehicle stopped about two feet from our knees. I guess intimidation was their tactic. In total they had about 10 vehicles, mostly pickup trucks, a few pulling stock trailers, and I’d guess about 30 men. Only 6 wear wearing LEO uniforms, the highest ranked was a sergeant.
He got out and immediately ordered us to move the backhoe, we stayed seated. In the most official voice he could muster he explained they were here to appropriate foodstuffs and animals under the NDAA act of 2016, we must comply or be arrested. I pointed out the NDAA was Federal law, he wasn’t Federal, and taking anything would be theft.
His answer was predictable, he was authorized by the Stone County Commissioners to seize any and all consumables for the General Storehouse. I asked him where the Commissioners got their authority over private property. He was getting more than a little frustrated, you could see the color rising in his face.
Just before he could say “you’re under arrest for interfering with law officers”, I decided it was time to play our one card. “Sergeant, it’s obvious you’ve come prepared to shoot a lot of people to steal their food, while we’re only prepared to shoot two. There are a dozen guns within 50 yards of us, and they’re all aimed at you and your buddy there. If anyone dies here today, you and he will be the first. Let’s calm down and work something out, we’re prepared to share some of our supplies with the good people of Stone County, but we’re not going to slowly starve while they eat it. We’ll fill two of your trucks with supplies, and put 4 sheep in your stock trailer, but no more. What’s it going to be?”
“Four trucks and 10 sheep” he said. “Nope, two and four, that’s it” said I. “Three and six” says he. “We’ll do that, but keep one thing in mind, that leaves us barely scraping by, come back for more and we’ll have nothing to lose”. “Tell your people what we’re doing, send everyone except the drivers of the four trucks home, when they’re gone we’ll move the backhoe, drive the trucks ourselves and load them. We’ll bring them back here, then you’re gone for good, okay?” “Agreed” was his response.
When his “posse” was gone, I shouted “James, Jimmy, Kathleen, Gwen, sling your weapons and come get these trucks”. We’d already separated out the supplies and the sheep, so it was no problem loading and returning. In the meantime Warren and I made small talk with the Sergeant. It seems they’ve been fairly successful gathering supplies from around the county, bringing them to a central warehouse in Galena, the county seat, and doling them out to the citizens there. He sincerely thought he was doing the right thing, even though I pointed out he was starving the rightful owners to feed people who didn’t give any thought to preparing for emergencies. I just hate the words “greater good”, the phrase is just a synonym for “from makers to takers”.
As they were about to leave, I reminded the Sergeant not to come back, things wouldn’t go nearly so well next time. Then I asked Kathleen to see if she could hit a crow on a fencepost about 300 yard away. She rested her 30.06 on the backhoe, took aim, and made feathers fly. Damn, that gal is good. I looked the Sergeant in the eye, but didn’t say anything.
To be continued…..
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Post by paisley on Jan 26, 2017 18:15:39 GMT
I really liked the :sample of race horse betting to explain the current banking disaster.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2017 19:55:15 GMT
I don't know what you mean about not getting any better, but you're certainly not getting worse. A good read, Ozarks Tom, and I'm looking forward to the next installment.
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Post by themotherhen on Jan 26, 2017 20:48:55 GMT
I really liked the :sample of race horse betting to explain the current banking disaster. Me too, for the first time I understand derivatives ☺ I really liked this Tom, thanks!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2017 21:14:39 GMT
The characters in the story are so lifelike. You feel you may know some of them, or at least have heard of them...
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Post by farmgirl on Jan 27, 2017 1:26:15 GMT
I think you're a pretty good author, & I look forward to reading more of your stories!
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Post by paisley on Jan 27, 2017 1:47:23 GMT
Could your bil write a review?
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Post by Ozarks Tom on Jan 27, 2017 2:28:28 GMT
Could your bil write a review? Most of the story is pure fiction, but not my BIL. Just what kind of an idiot is he? His village doesn't even want him back.
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Post by paisley on Jan 27, 2017 3:10:05 GMT
We must have married into the same family
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Post by themotherhen on Jan 27, 2017 8:28:39 GMT
Could your bil write a review? Most of the story is pure fiction, but not my BIL. Just what kind of an idiot is he? His village doesn't even want him back. Most villages have enough idiots.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2017 20:13:51 GMT
An intellectual view of the "vital, psycho-social service" provided by Village Idiots.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2017 21:45:30 GMT
BOred... waiting for next installment...
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